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枫下家园 / 理财投资税务 / ZT:: 根据美国耶鲁大学，南加州大学及加州柏克莱大学三位教授对美国股市长期走势的研究，他们认为2000年三月开始的熊市要到2018年才结束，其理论是，20-39岁的人赚的钱大部分用于消费，40-59岁的人赚的钱不少用于投资股票，60岁以后要退休，就倾向出售股票，所以股市升跌跟随社会人口结构变化而定。二次世界大战后的婴儿潮出生的人口比他们的上一代多2700万人，他们1985年步入40岁，引发美股十多年大牛市。未来美国1945-1965年出生的9700万人逐渐进入退休年龄，他们比1966-1985年出生的人口多1000万，退休者的出售压力将令股市反复向下。真是信不信由你。
-sss(旁观者);
2003-1-18
{326}
(#984419@0)
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If you really are interested in such theories, recommend one book: Rich dad's prophecy: why the biggest stock market crash in history is still coming... You can get it from TPL.
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-18
(#984443@0)
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谢谢你的推荐。请问，TPL是什么冬冬?
-sss(旁观者);
2003-1-18
(#984472@0)
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toronto public library
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-18
(#984494@0)
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谢谢。再请问，哪里可以弄到股票的5分钟图的历史数据？想研究研究。
-sss(旁观者);
2003-1-18
(#984582@0)
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sorry. no idea. :-)
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-18
(#984615@0)
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www.finance.yahoo.ca
-bh_zhang(Babyboomer);
2003-1-20
(#987226@0)
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谢谢。但我仅能看到股票的5分钟图，却找不到该图的历史数据，只能在Historical Quotes中下载daily/weekly/monthly的历史数据。请问5分钟的历史数据怎么找？
-sss(旁观者);
2003-1-20
(#988544@0)
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又是一篇狗屁文章
-kraft(craft);
2003-1-18
(#984650@0)
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为什么？请问阁下有何高见？
-sss(旁观者);
2003-1-18
(#984675@0)
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据我所知，股市投资的主力是机构，你引用的那多出来的1000万人，就算撤出来，影响也十分有限。还有很多更重要的因素，请进----有一些观点供你参考，根据效率市场的观点，如果你说的因素成立的话，股市会迅速消化这个消息，不要10几年的熊市，股市具有超前性。现在的股市是已经透露的信息的表现，未来的消息还没产生，所以，你无法预测未来的股市。再说相对你引用的这个因素我个人认为很有限，今后的经济发展，政局稳定等更重要。一般来说预测这么长的趋势，用常识来判断就是不可信的。人们往往是上涨的时候非常乐观，下跌的时候又非常悲观。有一种观点是股市是无法预测的，那么最好的办法就是控制风险，顺势而为！
-wrongpost(贴错了);
2003-1-18
{452}
(#984731@0)
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Firstly, 机构 use individual's money to trade.1000万人撤出来 means at least half of the institutes will close down for good. Secondly, 效率市场 is just an ideal, like Communism Society.Do u really believe 效率市场 can be set up in the human society? thirdly...
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-18
{75}
(#984780@0)
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美国人很有钱么？他们的资产又有多少在股市里呢？我手头没有具体的数据，只是有些印象，平均起来美国人并没有多少钱，至少现在的储蓄率是负数，就是透支过日。富人到老了也不一定要套现股票过日，而穷人哪里来的股票呀。相对那些国际游资，投资机构，所谓婴儿潮的因素我个人认为很小，而且我也不大相信预测这么长的趋势，至多是管中窥豹----可见一斑。
-wrongpost(贴错了);
2003-1-19
{280}
(#984822@0)
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Whether 美国人很有钱 or not is unimportant. The important thing is how much money is in 401. Don't be confused by the propaganda...透支过日 doesn't mean they don't have money. As far as my knowledge is concerned, they always pay this, pay that, pay 401 first, Then they begin to loan. Eventhough their cash balance is below zero, they still have a lot of money in their 401. Otherwise, how can they live after retirement?
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-19
{292}
(#985257@0)
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In the age of baby boomer, the stock market has been distorted a lot. I feel that we lack such common sense from the macroscopic point of views. I'm greatly convinced that what they said is really the main trend...
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-18
(#984707@0)
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市场的走势假如完全是由统计数据决定当然简单。但是谁能预测每天都可能发生的利空和利好消息?总之，相信学者的预测是最愚蠢的。
-wins(wins);
2003-1-18
(#984710@0)
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This article is discussing a long term, marcroscopic... You are talking about a short term, microscopic... No contradiction...
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-18
(#984732@0)
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教授跟空谈家有区别吗？无论长线短线，要考虑的因素多得是，就仅仅那几个数据就做个结论，其实跟买大小也没什么区别。
-wins(wins);
2003-1-18
(#984793@0)
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The difference between 教授 and 空谈家 is the professor can show you some testimonies apart from the result. You can prove or disprove it. On the contrary,空谈家 can only give us the conclusion. No clue to reexamine whether it's true or not. We can only believe or not.
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-19
{115}
(#985260@0)
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They are individual investors, the market is manipulated by institutions.
-200388(卫东);
2003-1-18
(#984735@0)
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That's a misleading view. Where do the institutes collect moeny? Who are the institutes? Do the institutes use their own money to trade in market?There is no doubt, more than 90% of Institute's money is coming from the individual through mutual fund, bank, or some other sources.
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-18
{134}
(#984756@0)
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Institutions such as CSFB, Merrill, Goldman Sachs and alike, always depend on investors money to do business but often in an unethical way. An article called "Can this bull run again?" in the Dec. 30th'issue of Fortune may give you more inside.
-rotten(downtoearth);
2003-1-19
{42}
(#985276@0)
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谈点正经的,我对股市的看法.算是抛砖引玉.
-wzap(信天翁);
2003-1-18
{612}
(#984747@0)
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证监会是干什么，知道么？如果被确认内幕交易，惩罚是很严重的，ATI最近的事你关注么？
-wrongpost(贴错了);
2003-1-18
(#984775@0)
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不关注，因为没买ATI
-patpat(饺子的春天);
2003-1-18
{11}
(#984797@0)
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证监会干什么？help them to hide 内幕交易(not just kidding...) If the chairman of ATI was an original Canadian, the story must be totally different... Think about NT or .... too many to mention...
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-18
(#984805@0)
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把这个问题上升到种族问题，我觉得没什么意义吧。什么时候都有人钻法律的空子，以身试法，好在这里还算是法制社会吧！
-wrongpost(贴错了);
2003-1-19
(#984843@0)
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Not 种族问题, but some commen sense. What I mean is that the original has more and more ways to 钻法律的空子 because they are familiar with every thing. However, most of us don't know. In other words, it's just a trap,Only trap those people who don't know them well.
Of course, we can learn the rule. However, it needs a long time and I don't think we can understand them well.
All in all, it may be true for ATI's wrong doing, but I am greatly convinced that more and more people do the same thing, however, they 钻法律的空子 because they know them well.
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-19
{347}
(#985261@0)
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乱讲
-patpat(饺子的春天);
2003-1-19
(#984854@0)
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证监会当然是起监管作用的,但这只能是内幕交易更隐蔽.贪婪是人的尤其是资本家的本性.如果存在体制上的缺陷,立法是没有用的.除非你能改变公司大股东(董事会)和普通股民在获得公司运营信息的能力和条件上的不平衡的事实.
-wzap(信天翁);
2003-1-19
(#984912@0)
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说得太对了！股市是资本家们剑财的宝地。什么投资，是与虎谋皮的勾当！俺这么说有人可能不高兴。不过真的很耽心，特别是那些新手，到时候输得没短裤了，可别怪俺没提个醒。。。
你有劲来砖头吧，俺当金砖收藏起来。
-maple2000(听到春天的脚步了吗？);
2003-1-19
{136}
(#984885@0)
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Right to the point. Technical curves can be made. Fundamentals can be led sidetracked. Manipulation is the key in today's stock market.
-rotten(downtoearth);
2003-1-19
(#985259@0)
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就算这多出来的1000万人在15年里为了养老要抛股票，也不会有多大的市场压力。况且他们现在的投资组合里究竟有多少是股票？多少是债券？多少是房地产？
-jianghongca(慎独);
2003-1-19
(#984835@0)
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The data of such questions are important even though I have no way to get them. However, we can see a little from reviews of the employees of Enron, WorldCOM, and UA...There are many such reviews last year. The impression to me is that most of the 401 are invested in their own company....
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-19
{121}
(#985264@0)
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我觉得，美股这次熊市需要经历很长时间的可能性较大．美元大势已去，就是一个明显的迹象．另外，美国经济的两大支柱，消费和房地产，也已渐露疲态．但这个熊市到底是五年、八年？还是十年、二十年？只有事后才知道了．
-sss(旁观者);
2003-1-19
(#984863@0)
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医疗，药物，老人服务行业会托这批人的福。大家可以关注HLTH这只股
-maple2000(听到春天的脚步了吗？);
2003-1-19
(#984871@0)
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hehe, Great minds think alike "Rich dad's prophecy: why the biggest stock market crash in history is still coming"
-siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨);
2003-1-19
(#985265@0)