Happy New Year! and IBM. -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨) @佛州华人论坛:佛州枫下论坛 The Rolia Forum of Florida

枫下家园 / 理财投资税务 / Summary of my investment in 2002 -rounder(rounder); 2002-12-31 {901} (#947511@0)
Here is how my portfolio did in the past year. I would be glad to see others share their lessons learnt o this forum this year.

I put 72% of my investment in US big cap and mid cap stocks, 18% in Canadian small cap stocks. Assuming I sell all my holdings today, my US portfolio will return 9.6%, which is not bad comparing to the -15% return of Dow Jones and -28% of NASDAQ in the same period. However, my Canadian portfolio turned out to be a big disappointment. I lost a whopping 45%, which wiped out all my gain from the US Port. Over all I am 0.5% worse off.

My conclusions:

Stay away from dollar stocks, no matter how attractive they look like;

Buy and hold is not always a winning strategy,at least for this year; Sector selection is more important.

Set target price at the time of purchase, and be disciplined.

Follow a company for at least 2 month before investment.

肺腑之沿啊，但是要是用中文的就更好了 -ningxin0809(雁影行洲); 2002-12-31 (#947523@0)
好建议...俺的收益也不砸地 -dropoutinmiami(饺子@2003年); 2002-12-31 (#947535@0)
Better than me. I am afraid of counting how much money I already lost in the stock market, and at least a downpayment. -alice2003(飞雪); 2002-12-31 (#947536@0)

都是有钱人啊。 -ningxin0809(雁影行洲); 2002-12-31 (#947540@0)

正难过呢.... -alice2003(飞雪); 2002-12-31 (#947543@0)

瘦死的骆驼比马大，要有这信心 -ningxin0809(雁影行洲); 2002-12-31 (#947560@0)

Thank you! Wish mm have happy Sheep year ! -alice2003(飞雪); 2002-12-31 (#947577@0)

THANKS -ningxin0809(雁影行洲); 2002-12-31 (#947605@0)

Summary of my investment in 2002 -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨); 2002-12-31 {1089} (#947643@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Here is how my portfolio did in the past year. I would be glad to see others share their lessons learnt o this forum this year.

I put 80% of my investment in US technology zone (because I know only some technology company such as MS FDRY CSCO NT ... ), 20% in Canadian Mutual Funds (I don't know much about TSX. The only stocks I can follow are ATY and NT). Assuming I cover all my short today (I sold out all my stocks after I posted a message here at the end of November), my US portfolio will return 15.1%, which is not bad comparing to the -15% return of Dow Jones and -28% of NASDAQ in the same period. However, my Canadian portfolio turned out to be a little disappointment. I lost a whopping 4.7%, which wiped out all my gain from the US Port. Over all I am 13.9%

My conclusions:

Stay away from dollar stocks, no matter how attractive they look like;

Buy and hold is not always a winning strategy. We must set up Zhi3 Sun3 Wei4.

Follow a company for at least 6 months before investment.

Short Sell can help us to know the market more deeply. We must learn it.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

害我，又来个英文的。 -ningxin0809(雁影行洲); 2002-12-31 (#947649@0)
You done a good job, congratulations!! I only never do "Sell on stop" and sell short. I just act "Buy & Hold". -alice2003(飞雪); 2002-12-31 (#947678@0)

In my humble opinion, sell short can help us to understand why we should "sell on stop". Fortunately, sell on stop is very important in the bear market like now. -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨); 2002-12-31 (#947695@0)

Thank you! Which broker do you use? I am using BMO for both canadian stocks and US stocks, but commission fee is really high. This month, I opened a new account in the Ameritrade Canada, but I can't see "sell short". -alice2003(飞雪); 2002-12-31 (#947714@0)

1.BMO. $29/1k is reasonable. I never trade more than 1k shares in one time. 2. Sell Short need Margin Account, not Cash Account. You can ask them to change your account to Margin with Short Sell. -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨); 2002-12-31 (#947721@0)

继续，继续，我可以学到不少知识呢。 -ningxin0809(雁影行洲); 2002-12-31 (#947728@0)

"害you", I don't dare to continue :) -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨); 2002-12-31 (#947735@0)

没关系，我可以“忍痛”看下去呀：） -ningxin0809(雁影行洲); 2002-12-31 (#947753@0)

You are right. I selected "Margin account" when I filled in Ameritrade application form, but today I found there is no "Sell short" option, I will call them after New Year. Its commission is only 10.99 once. -alice2003(飞雪); 2002-12-31 (#947741@0)

good good! I'll try also after I understand all the rules here. -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨); 2002-12-31 (#947747@0)
Have you ever used TD waterhouse? How is your opinion about TD? -may16(learner); 2002-12-31 (#947763@0)

I didn't use, but my friend use it. Its commission fee is cheaper than BMO, but BMO's service is NO.1 among the canadian brokers in Year 2002. -alice2003(飞雪); 2002-12-31 (#947767@0)

I now testing IB(Interactive Brokers Canada), stock: 0.01/share <500; option: $1 for a contract. It is sounds good, and the speed is great, but difficult to transfer money. -haah(1212123); 2003-1-1 (#949598@0)

Money talks... -rounder(rounder); 2002-12-31 {1888} (#947873@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Hats off to Siebel. You beat your mutual fund manager by 20%, and this is probably before their management fees.

On short: I never tried short because I think I don't know any company well enough to short it. The thing with short is that it is much more time sensitive than a straight buy, and people tend to forget the risk associated with leverage. I have seen too many people got burnt by "leveraged long" when I was in China. (Short is not available in China). I think Siebel knows his industry much better than me, so I wouldn't imitate his approach for now. By the way, working in an industry doesn't mean one knows where the industry is going. The CEO of Worldcom took a big loan to buy its stock, which is now worth nothing.

To all: what's you take on the market next year? specifically:
Will the indexes go higher/lower/sideway?
Which sector will be the winner, which will be the loser?
Any favorite stocks (to buy or to short)?

My 2 cents first:
I see major indexes go sideways, with at least two major setbacks in the year which will be buying opportunities;

I am moderately bullish on pharmaceutical, strong survivors in technology, and financials; But I will only buy after a 10% drop from current price level.

My top three picks are (all buy):
UTSI (a China wireless play)
Pfizer
AIG ( major insurance company)

I will consider these companies if there are major bad news breakout and their prices plunge:

IBM
Capital One (credit card)

Finally I think diversification and cash reserve are important. I traded in 10 stocks this year, and my portfolio never has less than 6 stocks and 10% cash.

Sorry I didn't write in English, because typing Chinese will at least quandriple my writing time, while reading English will probably at most double your reading time, so I made the economic choice :-)

Good luck in 2003!更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

Talk Money... -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨); 2002-12-31 {4899} (#948024@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛I don't know much of Stock Market especially in North America. I don't know which company is doing what and what's their priority and shortcoming. How can I invest if I don't know them? Honestly, I seldom touch anything unfamiliar.

The market is always fluctuating. No one can predict the whole trend before it is over. How about next year's indexes? It's just a guessing game. Anyone has 1/3 chance to win. Trend is important, but we cannot predict it (especially for a long time ... one year, two years ). Otherwise, to be rich is too easy.

Facing to the Market, we are idiot. We have no way to follow it especially in North America.

Then, Does that mean I have no way but LOSE in market???

Almost right. If we try to take on the market, he will teach us a lot.

Don't be so despairing! Fortunately, there are still several ways for us to make a live. That's what I'm doing now.

1. Trust me. No one knows whether the indexes will up or down next year. However, I understand something happended must creat a short trend. For example, the war, the bankruptcy, 911, or some other things. There must be several big issues happened every year. Just catch it even after it happened, that's enough. That's the reason why I emphasize the importance of Sell Short. If Bush was murdered tomorrow, can we earn money? I'm sure I can.

Based on my history knowledgy, the Uncle Sam show his power to Iraq is almost definit. War is definitely a shock to the market based on my common sense. That's why I sold out at the end of Nov so that I reserved my profit. Of course, it's due to luck also. Please notice, this judgement doesn't care about the economy, interest, company profit, or some other things. Not because these issues are not important, but comparing with war, all others can be neglected. We must alert such terrific issues!

The market is too complex to understand even for the professional. I can only try to catch several chances on the desk. In most other times, I should have a rest. So, I traded only 3 times in stock market this year, so I don't care too much the commission.

2. Whether the sector is winner or loser doesn't make sense. I don't believe anyone can know it. Otherwise, he will be smile in a corner by himself alone. The only thing we should know is that whether it is fluctuated and how fierce it fluctrated. For example, if The God told us the Retail Sector will up 10% and the Telecomm will down 50% next year. Who will win more money, the trader in Telecomm or Retail?

So, whether it win or not doesn't matter except we buy and hold. The key is whether it will fluctrate. This is another reason for me to trade in only Technology Sector. (The main reason is that I don't understand most of other sectors, for example Gold, Finance, Real Estate, and so on.)

3 Any favorite stocks.
3.1. Buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy, buy after short, short after buy...
SEBL
PSFT
CA
FDRY
SUNW
ATY

3.2.Buy and hold until it can get 20% or more profit
CHA
WM
GSH (waiting for the volume to be increased dramatically).

3.3.Buy and hold until I need cash
Mutual Fund

4. Finally I think diversification is no use for us because we have too little money. Just like a real war, if you have 100K soldiers, you can diversify. Comparing with the institute investor, we have only 0.1 soldier or less to fight. How to diversify? To me, I seldom make decision. But once I made the decision, I muster all my resources to win it. Why research? Just for find the enemy you can fight. Diversification means I don't know where is the target, just try every direction.

The cash reserve are important. It's more important than anything. Otherwise, we have no power to fight when we pretty sure we can win. Of course, most of my cash is existed as the form of Money Market Bond.

I traded in 2 stocks and followed more than 80 stocks this year, and my portfolio has no stock in most of the time for the whole year.

Good luck in 2003!更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

Appreciate your opinion. -rounder(rounder); 2002-12-31 {980} (#948086@0)
I think you made a strong argument on index / sector forecast. You showed great consistency in your understanding of the market and your investing style, and that's the key.

On the point of diversification, I don't agree with you completely. Generally speaking, for big cap companies if you have a well balanced portfolio of 10 stocks, you can achieve at least 80% of the diversification effect of a mutual fund. There is diminishing return in diversifying. The trick is to construct the portfolio with less correlated stocks.

I will take a good look at the stocks on your radar screen. Appreciate your opinion. One more thing before I go, what do you think about IBM? I don't work in technology, but I noticed several major companies just outsourced their tech support to IBM, is it turning itself into a service company? If so its revenue steam will be more steady. My concern is it's pension reserve might be inadequate following the tech meltdown.

ciao

Happy New Year! and IBM. -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨); 2003-1-1 {1631} (#948184@0)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Thanks for you to share your smart way to diversify. It's really a necessary and perfect way to diversify if "never has less than 6 stocks and 10% cash". I totally agree.

IBM has put Service and Software to a high priority for a long time (since Gartner? came into the power). Since 1993(?) IBM Service and Software revenue surpass its hardware revenue. To many people surprise, IBM is the biggest software company in the world, not MS or CA. What you think is right, IBM is more like a service company, or consulting company, or software company than a hardware company. SUN, HP is trying to follow the pattern also.

One reason for me drop IBM down is that I don't know how large the service share is bundled with its old machines. In my humble opinion, one of the main reasons for JP Morgen deal is that JP is currently using a lot of IBM machines. However, as we know, the market share of IBM mainframe has been down for a while. I can't imagine a company with SUN's mainframe will buy IBM's service. This is the difference between IBM service and other pure service/software company like Accenture, SEBL, MS, or CA.

"My concern is it's pension reserve might be inadequate following the tech meltdown." You got the point. It seems to be the problems for most of the blue chips(GM, GE...). But I don't understand why even many Growth Funds hold large quantities of such companies' share. Don't they care or they have some other ways to solve the problem? I will see what will happen at last.

I'm so glad to know someone like you to share with us so many good think. Wish you a good return next year!更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

好文好文，看了两位的帖子，受益匪浅，你们每天要花多少时间在股市上？ -camcorder(Camcorder); 2003-1-1 {159} (#949094@0)
说到分散投资，那是规避或减少非系统风险的唯一方法，对于小投资人来说，没多少银子，又没有时间，买卖QQQ之类的Index Tracking Stock倒是个折中的办法(只是相关性大了点)

Watching market and company news: less than 15 min per day. Reading business magazines/ research individual stocks: 2-3 hrs a week. Monthly review of my portfolio: 1 hr -rounder(over the hump); 2003-1-2 {101} (#950253@0)
Other: I've taken some finance courses in portfolio theory, but I am not an investment professional.

2002 年就象下水道一样。 -hearts(hearts); 2003-1-1 {230} (#948907@0)
RESP －13.5％，Pension -8.4%, CAD stock -37.5%, US stock 1.7%, RRSP 2.6%，累计－8.2%。
教训：
1。Buy and hold是大忌；
2。基金要自己管理；
3。止损要坚决；
4。熊市不言高成长；
5。宁漏一百，不抢一个。

心有戚戚烟，心有戚戚烟，心有戚戚烟.... -siebel(阿丽梦啊我来离萨); 2003-1-1 (#949017@0)

Today NT is soaring... GO, GO for NT.. -alice2003(飞雪@羊年更美好); 2003-1-2 (#950911@0)

@Florida

Happy New Year! and IBM.

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