本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛We are adding CCA shares to our Action List. Our forecasts, Buy rating, and $25 target remain
intact, but the recent decline in the share price has opened up a 51% return to our target price.
CCA shares have fallen 19% from a high of $20.60 in June, and in the past two weeks the
stock is off 6% even though the average cable stock in North America is up 5%. We do not
believe there is any fundamental reason for this underperformance. The company will report
Q4 results on October 20, and we are confident that it will meet or exceed its financial and
subscriber guidance. Our EBITDA estimate of $181 million remains slightly above the high end
of management's guidance of $178-$180. We do not believe that the rate increases in July
have resulted in material customer loss, so we continue to view the EBITDA growth guidance
for 2004 of 8%-10% as easily achievable. Based on 2003e EBITDA (which is soon to become
trailing for Cogeco), CCA shares are undervalued at 8.1x versus Canadian peers at about 9x
and US peers at about 11x.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
intact, but the recent decline in the share price has opened up a 51% return to our target price.
CCA shares have fallen 19% from a high of $20.60 in June, and in the past two weeks the
stock is off 6% even though the average cable stock in North America is up 5%. We do not
believe there is any fundamental reason for this underperformance. The company will report
Q4 results on October 20, and we are confident that it will meet or exceed its financial and
subscriber guidance. Our EBITDA estimate of $181 million remains slightly above the high end
of management's guidance of $178-$180. We do not believe that the rate increases in July
have resulted in material customer loss, so we continue to view the EBITDA growth guidance
for 2004 of 8%-10% as easily achievable. Based on 2003e EBITDA (which is soon to become
trailing for Cogeco), CCA shares are undervalued at 8.1x versus Canadian peers at about 9x
and US peers at about 11x.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net